THE READ 11 red-flag mentions across this year's filings, led by dilution, and 35 since 2001, so this is a long-running pattern; share count jumped 44% in a year (holders are being diluted fast); roughly 7 months of cash at the current burn rate.
We read every document this company filed with the SEC this year and counted the classic danger phrases. Where wording can be misleading, we open the actual documents and separate real warnings from accounting boilerplate. Each hit links to the exact document.
An ATM lets the company print and sell new shares into the market any day it wants. Every print dilutes your slice.
EVIDENCE: [1] 8-K FILED 2026-02-05 · [2] 8-K FILED 2026-03-12 · [3] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06 · [4] 8-K FILED 2025-09-26 · [5] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06
A reverse split shrinks the share count to lift the price above $1. Repeat reverse splits are the classic death-spiral signature.
EVIDENCE: [1] 10-K FILED 2026-03-12 · [2] 10-K FILED 2026-03-12 · [3] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06 · [4] 10-Q FILED 2025-11-06
Auditors flagged substantial doubt the company survives the next 12 months without new money.
The exchange has threatened to kick the stock off. Delisting pressure usually ends in a reverse split or a fire-sale raise.
EVIDENCE: [1] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06 · [2] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06 · [3] S-3 FILED 2025-11-06 · [4] 10-K FILED 2026-03-12
SOURCE: FULL-TEXT SEARCH OF THE COMPANY'S OFFICIAL SEC FILINGS. "REAL WARNINGS" = WE OPENED THE LINKED DOCUMENTS AND FILTERED PHRASES WRAPPED IN NEGATIONS, RESOLUTION LANGUAGE OR STANDARD CONTRACT TERMS. "AT LEAST" = MORE DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PHRASE THIS YEAR THAN WE COULD OPEN AND READ.
How many shares exist, over time, exactly as the company reported in its own filings. In microcaps, a rising share count is how holders pay for everything: salaries, debts, and bad deals. Sudden collapses in the line are reverse splits, marked below.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED SHARE COUNTS ACROSS 8 FILINGS, STRAIGHT FROM SEC RECORDS
CHECKING OFFICIAL SPLIT RECORDS…
Type how many shares you hold. The math is plain division on the company's own reported counts.
Cash in the bank against how fast the company burns it. When this hits zero, the next stop is usually a desperate raise at bad terms, and existing holders pay through dilution.
RUNWAY = CASH ON HAND ÷ MONTHLY CASH BURN. SIMPLE ARITHMETIC ON THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED NUMBERS, NOT A PROJECTION.
The latest filings, translated into holder impact. Every number cites its form, date and SEC link.
Shares outstanding rose 47.60M to 48.16M (+1.2%) between 10-Q 2026-05-04 and 10-Q 2026-08-03.
NOW: 48,160,096 as of 2026-08-03 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: 47,597,536 as of 2026-05-04 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Cash and equivalents rose $45.21M to $54.12M ($8.91M, +19.7%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $54.12M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $45.21M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total assets fell to $435.91M (from $452.70M, -3.7%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $435.91M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $452.70M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total liabilities rose to $26.37M (from $14.95M, +76.4%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $26.37M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $14.95M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Revenue: nothing to compare. This company's filings do not publish us-gaap:Revenues, so no honest change can be computed.
Monthly operating cash deficit ~$7.24M ($-42.83M over the period ended 2026-06-30 in 10-Q). Against $54.12M cash is roughly 0.6 years of runway (7 months).
NOW: $-42.83M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
When something material happens, the company itself must announce it in an 8-K under the SEC's numbered item system. These are those announcements, newest first: bankruptcy papers, exchange delisting warnings, auditor changes, financials pulled back. Read straight from the SEC filing index, no interpretation layer.
SOURCE: THE ITEM NUMBERS THE COMPANY ITSELF PUT ON EACH 8-K IN THE SEC'S FILING INDEX. HOVER A STAMP FOR WHAT THAT ITEM MEANS FOR YOUR SHARES. OFFICIAL NOTICES INSIDE THE LAST 12 MONTHS ALSO FEED THE RISK INDEX ABOVE (CAPPED AT 15 POINTS).
An 8-K is the "something happened right now" filing. Here is what this one says, in the company's own words.
On August 27, 2026, MBX Biosciences, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") titled “MBX Biosciences Announces First Patient Dosed in Pivotal Phase 3 oPTimize Trial of Once-Weekly Canvuparatide in Adults with Hypoparathyroidism.” A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as
On August 27, 2026, the Company announced the dosing of the first patient in its pivotal Phase 3 oPTimize clinical trial evaluating once-weekly canvuparatide for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism (HP). A summary of the trial design is as follows: Phase 3 oPTimize trial design The Phase 3 oPTimize trial is a global, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study evaluating the efficacy and safety of once-weekly canvuparatide in adults with chronic HP, followed by a 78-week open-label extension. Approximately 160 patients will be enrolled and randomized 3:1 to receive...
A rules-based reading of the cited filing facts: a range with reasons, never a prediction.
HOW THE BRACKET IS BUILT: BOOK EQUITY OF $8.50/SHARE AT 0.5-1.0X · MULTIPLES STRIPPED: UNDER A YEAR OF CASH AT THE CURRENT BURN, SO THE BRACKET CAPS AT WIND-DOWN CASH · CASH FLOOR: $1.12/SHARE IN A WIND-DOWN.
Share count is stable-ish (+1.2% change between the last two reported quarters).
Fair-value range anchored to cited facts: $4.25 to $4.25 per share.
Cash of $54,124,000 funds only ~0.6 years of operating burn (that is a going-concern pressure without a raise).
The filings do not publish comparable revenue figures for two consecutive periods, so the revenue trend could not be measured.
METHOD: DETERMINISTIC RULES OVER CITED SEC FILING FACTS: SHARE-COUNT CHANGE BETWEEN THE LAST TWO REPORTED QUARTERS (DILUTION), CASH-TO-BURN RUNWAY FROM THE MOST RECENT OPERATING CASH FLOW, PERIOD-OVER-PERIOD REVENUE GROWTH, AND A FAIR-VALUE RANGE ANCHORED TO CASH PER SHARE VS PRICE. THRESHOLDS ARE TUNABLE IN APP/VERDICT_ENGINE.PY. NOT A PREDICTION.
Every time an officer, director or big owner trades shares, the law makes them file a Form 4 within two business days. We read the actual filings: who traded, what kind of trade, how big, at what price.
EACH MONTH SHOWS OPEN-MARKET DOLLAR FLOW PARSED FROM FORM 4 FILINGS. GRANTS AND OPTION PAPER ARE EXCLUDED: THIS IS REAL MONEY IN AND OUT.
PEOPLE WITH THE BEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS COMPANY ARE SELLING MORE THAN THEY BUY. NOT PROOF OF ANYTHING: EXECUTIVES SELL FOR MANY REASONS. BUT AT MICROCAP SCALE, IT RARELY SMELLS GOOD. "10B5-1 PLAN" MEANS THE TRADE WAS SCHEDULED UNDER A PRE-SET TRADING PLAN, DISCLOSED IN THE FILING'S OWN FOOTNOTES: PRE-PLANNED SALES CARRY LESS SIGNAL THAN SPUR-OF-THE-MOMENT ONES. SOURCE: FORM 4 FILINGS, PARSED FROM THE SEC'S OWN XML, LAST 10 FILINGS.
The company's most recent SEC paperwork, newest first.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
Public records that most investors never check, cross-checked against what the company claims. This is where shells slip up.
SOURCES: PUBLIC DOMAIN REGISTRATION RECORDS (FOUND IN THE COMPANY'S OWN FILING SIGNATURES) · THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX · OFFICIAL US SANCTIONS LIST · QUARTERLY 13F FILINGS VIA EDGAR FULL-TEXT SEARCH · LEGAL-IDENTITY, SITE-HISTORY, CERTIFICATE, REGISTRANT-HISTORY AND DNS SLOTS STREAM IN FROM FREE PUBLIC REGISTRIES WITHOUT BLOCKING THIS PAGE.
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SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
One Telegram message per material filing: dilution, going concern, delisting, insider dumps. No account, no email. Every line cites its SEC source. Leave anytime with /unwatch.
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