METHODOLOGY
A number is only useful if you can see how it was made.
This page describes the sources behind every report, the exact rules that turn those sources
into a 0 to 100 risk index, and the limits of the whole thing. It is written so that a reader can
disagree with a score and know precisely which input they are disagreeing with.
01
Data Sources
- SEC EDGAR. The primary source. Company submissions, financial statement data (XBRL company facts), annual and quarterly reports, current reports on Form 8-K, registration statements, and insider Forms 3, 4 and 5.
- US Treasury OFAC. The sanctions list, screened against company names.
- Public registry and naming records. RDAP lookups, archived WHOIS history, and certificate transparency logs for the domains attached to an issuer.
- GLEIF. The Global Legal Entity Identifier registry, for legal identity and corporate relationships.
- Market data. A third-party provider supplies last close, confirmed splits, public float and short interest. Price data is used for context only and never feeds the risk score.
02
The Risk Index
The score is the sum of six independent components, each computed from the filings with fixed
thresholds. Same inputs, same score, for everyone. It is a screening heuristic, not a forecast.
Red flags
Weighted counts of danger phrases in the last 12 months of filings (going concern, ATM, reverse split, delisting), each capped.
Dilution
Trailing 12-month change in shares outstanding: +50% scores 20, +25% scores 14, +10% scores 8, +3% scores 4.
Runway
Months of cash at the current burn: under 6 scores 14, under 12 scores 8, under 24 scores 3.
Cash drain
A 30% or larger year-over-year fall in cash on hand scores 5.
Chronic pattern
Flags that have appeared for years rather than this cycle add 2 each, capped at 6.
Official notices
Critical-item 8-Ks in the trailing 12 months (bankruptcy, delisting, non-reliance) score up to 15.
Component totals are summed and capped at 100. Bands: quiet 0 to 24, guarded 25 to 44,
elevated 45 to 64, severe 65 to 100.
03
How Red Flags Are Counted
A phrase scan alone produces false positives, because words like "going concern" appear in
boilerplate and in descriptions of other companies. Where the documents are available, the report
opens the linked filing and filters obvious boilerplate before counting, and shows both the
verified count and the raw full-text count so the difference is visible. When verification is not
available, the raw count is used and labeled as such.
04
Update Cadence
Filings are fetched from EDGAR as they are requested and cached for up to 24 hours. Derived
reports (the delta, the verdict) are cached for about six hours. When a company files something
new, the cache for that company refreshes on the next request. Market data slots refresh on their
own schedule, governed by the provider's rate limits, and the report tells you when a slot is
waiting on a quota rather than inventing a number.
05
Limits
- It reads documents, not intentions. The score describes what a company reported and what it has done. It says nothing about where the price goes.
- It can be incomplete. Some issuers file irregularly or in formats that are harder to parse. Missing data is shown as unavailable, never as a clean result.
- It is not advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Scores are a starting point for your own work against the cited filings.
- It can be wrong. A parsing error or a stale cache can produce a bad number. When you find one, we fix it.
06
Corrections
If a report misstates something from a filing, email contact@decoded.report
with the ticker and the specific line. Corrections are made against the source document. See also
About for the editorial standards behind the tool.
DETERMINISTIC SCREENING OVER PUBLIC FILINGS. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT A FORECAST OF PRICE OR PERFORMANCE.