THE READ 24 red-flag mentions across this year's filings, led by going concern doubt; share count roughly stable; roughly 15 months of cash at the current burn rate.
We read every document this company filed with the SEC this year and counted the classic danger phrases. Where wording can be misleading, we open the actual documents and separate real warnings from accounting boilerplate. Each hit links to the exact document.
An ATM lets the company print and sell new shares into the market any day it wants. Every print dilutes your slice.
A reverse split shrinks the share count to lift the price above $1. Repeat reverse splits are the classic death-spiral signature.
Auditors flagged substantial doubt the company survives the next 12 months without new money.
EVIDENCE: [1] 10-Q FILED 2026-08-06
The exchange has threatened to kick the stock off. Delisting pressure usually ends in a reverse split or a fire-sale raise.
EVIDENCE: [1] 8-K FILED 2026-07-10
SOURCE: FULL-TEXT SEARCH OF THE COMPANY'S OFFICIAL SEC FILINGS. "REAL WARNINGS" = WE OPENED THE LINKED DOCUMENTS AND FILTERED PHRASES WRAPPED IN NEGATIONS, RESOLUTION LANGUAGE OR STANDARD CONTRACT TERMS. "AT LEAST" = MORE DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PHRASE THIS YEAR THAN WE COULD OPEN AND READ.
How many shares exist, over time, exactly as the company reported in its own filings. In microcaps, a rising share count is how holders pay for everything: salaries, debts, and bad deals. Sudden collapses in the line are reverse splits, marked below.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED SHARE COUNTS ACROSS 61 FILINGS, STRAIGHT FROM SEC RECORDS
CHECKING OFFICIAL SPLIT RECORDS…
Type how many shares you hold. The math is plain division on the company's own reported counts.
Cash in the bank against how fast the company burns it. When this hits zero, the next stop is usually a desperate raise at bad terms, and existing holders pay through dilution.
RUNWAY = CASH ON HAND ÷ MONTHLY CASH BURN. SIMPLE ARITHMETIC ON THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED NUMBERS, NOT A PROJECTION.
The latest filings, translated into holder impact. Every number cites its form, date and SEC link.
Shares outstanding rose 66.98M to 67.02M (+0.1%) between 10-Q 2026-05-05 and 10-Q 2026-08-04.
NOW: 67,018,033 as of 2026-08-04 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: 66,982,506 as of 2026-05-05 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Cash and equivalents fell $84.54M to $78.78M (-$5.77M, -6.8%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $78.78M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $84.54M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total assets fell to $1.87B (from $1.96B, -4.8%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $1.87B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $1.96B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total liabilities fell to $1.97B (from $1.97B, -0.1%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $1.97B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $1.97B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Revenue fell $489.30M to $460.28M (-5.9%) between the period ended 2026-03-31 and the period ended 2026-06-30 (10-Q).
NOW: $460.28M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $489.30M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Monthly operating cash deficit ~$5.11M ($-15.12M over the period ended 2026-06-30 in 10-Q). Against $78.78M cash is roughly 1.3 years of runway (15 months).
NOW: $-15.12M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
When something material happens, the company itself must announce it in an 8-K under the SEC's numbered item system. These are those announcements, newest first: bankruptcy papers, exchange delisting warnings, auditor changes, financials pulled back. Read straight from the SEC filing index, no interpretation layer.
SOURCE: THE ITEM NUMBERS THE COMPANY ITSELF PUT ON EACH 8-K IN THE SEC'S FILING INDEX. HOVER A STAMP FOR WHAT THAT ITEM MEANS FOR YOUR SHARES. OFFICIAL NOTICES INSIDE THE LAST 12 MONTHS ALSO FEED THE RISK INDEX ABOVE (CAPPED AT 15 POINTS).
EACH BAR IS ONE REPORTED QUARTER. GREEN = MOST RECENT QUARTER GREW VS THE ONE BEFORE.
An 8-K is the "something happened right now" filing. Here is what this one says, in the company's own words.
of this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing, On August 26, 2026, Mercer International Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced by press release that the Government of Canada, through Prairies Economic Development Canada, committed...
A rules-based reading of the cited filing facts: a range with reasons, never a prediction.
HOW THE BRACKET IS BUILT: TRAILING REVENUE OF $20.16/SHARE AT 1.0-3.0X · CASH FLOOR: $1.18/SHARE IN A WIND-DOWN.
Share count is stable-ish (+0.1% change between the last two reported quarters).
Revenue was roughly flat (-5.9% period over period).
Fair-value range anchored to cited facts: $0.3900 to $60.48 per share.
Cash of $78,775,000 funds only about 1.3 years of operating burn.
Verified going-concern warnings in a recent filing: auditors or management flagged substantial doubt about continuing (document text checked, boilerplate excluded).
METHOD: DETERMINISTIC RULES OVER CITED SEC FILING FACTS: SHARE-COUNT CHANGE BETWEEN THE LAST TWO REPORTED QUARTERS (DILUTION), CASH-TO-BURN RUNWAY FROM THE MOST RECENT OPERATING CASH FLOW, PERIOD-OVER-PERIOD REVENUE GROWTH, AND A FAIR-VALUE RANGE ANCHORED TO CASH PER SHARE VS PRICE. THRESHOLDS ARE TUNABLE IN APP/VERDICT_ENGINE.PY. NOT A PREDICTION.
Every time an officer, director or big owner trades shares, the law makes them file a Form 4 within two business days. We read the actual filings: who traded, what kind of trade, how big, at what price.
EACH MONTH SHOWS OPEN-MARKET DOLLAR FLOW PARSED FROM FORM 4 FILINGS. GRANTS AND OPTION PAPER ARE EXCLUDED: THIS IS REAL MONEY IN AND OUT.
INSIDERS SPENDING THEIR OWN MONEY AT THESE PRICES IS THE STRONGEST VOTE OF CONFIDENCE THE FILINGS CAN SHOW. "10B5-1 PLAN" MEANS THE TRADE WAS SCHEDULED UNDER A PRE-SET TRADING PLAN, DISCLOSED IN THE FILING'S OWN FOOTNOTES: PRE-PLANNED SALES CARRY LESS SIGNAL THAN SPUR-OF-THE-MOMENT ONES. SOURCE: FORM 4 FILINGS, PARSED FROM THE SEC'S OWN XML, LAST 10 FILINGS.
The company's most recent SEC paperwork, newest first.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
Public records that most investors never check, cross-checked against what the company claims. This is where shells slip up.
SOURCES: PUBLIC DOMAIN REGISTRATION RECORDS (FOUND IN THE COMPANY'S OWN FILING SIGNATURES) · THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX · OFFICIAL US SANCTIONS LIST · QUARTERLY 13F FILINGS VIA EDGAR FULL-TEXT SEARCH · LEGAL-IDENTITY, SITE-HISTORY, CERTIFICATE, REGISTRANT-HISTORY AND DNS SLOTS STREAM IN FROM FREE PUBLIC REGISTRIES WITHOUT BLOCKING THIS PAGE.
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SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
One Telegram message per material filing: dilution, going concern, delisting, insider dumps. No account, no email. Every line cites its SEC source. Leave anytime with /unwatch.
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