THE READ No concentrated red flags in this year's filings; share count shrank 8% over the past year (shrinking, not printing).
We read every document this company filed with the SEC this year and counted the classic danger phrases. Where wording can be misleading, we open the actual documents and separate real warnings from accounting boilerplate. Each hit links to the exact document.
An ATM lets the company print and sell new shares into the market any day it wants. Every print dilutes your slice.
EVIDENCE: [1] 10-K FILED 2026-02-26
A reverse split shrinks the share count to lift the price above $1. Repeat reverse splits are the classic death-spiral signature.
Auditors flagged substantial doubt the company survives the next 12 months without new money.
EVIDENCE: [1] 8-K FILED 2025-09-26 · [2] 10-K FILED 2026-02-26
The exchange has threatened to kick the stock off. Delisting pressure usually ends in a reverse split or a fire-sale raise.
SOURCE: FULL-TEXT SEARCH OF THE COMPANY'S OFFICIAL SEC FILINGS. "REAL WARNINGS" = WE OPENED THE LINKED DOCUMENTS AND FILTERED PHRASES WRAPPED IN NEGATIONS, RESOLUTION LANGUAGE OR STANDARD CONTRACT TERMS. "AT LEAST" = MORE DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PHRASE THIS YEAR THAN WE COULD OPEN AND READ.
How many shares exist, over time, exactly as the company reported in its own filings. In microcaps, a rising share count is how holders pay for everything: salaries, debts, and bad deals. Sudden collapses in the line are reverse splits, marked below.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED SHARE COUNTS ACROSS 19 FILINGS, STRAIGHT FROM SEC RECORDS
CHECKING OFFICIAL SPLIT RECORDS…
Type how many shares you hold. The math is plain division on the company's own reported counts.
Cash in the bank against how fast the company burns it. When this hits zero, the next stop is usually a desperate raise at bad terms, and existing holders pay through dilution.
RUNWAY = CASH ON HAND ÷ MONTHLY CASH BURN. SIMPLE ARITHMETIC ON THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED NUMBERS, NOT A PROJECTION.
The latest filings, translated into holder impact. Every number cites its form, date and SEC link.
Shares outstanding fell 62.53M to 61.51M (-1.6%) between 10-Q 2026-04-30 and 10-Q 2026-07-31.
NOW: 61,509,572 as of 2026-07-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: 62,531,106 as of 2026-04-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Cash and equivalents fell $75.85M to $70.13M (-$5.72M, -7.5%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $70.13M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $75.85M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total assets rose to $4.18B (from $4.14B, +0.8%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $4.18B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $4.14B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Total liabilities rose to $1.80B (from $1.78B, +1.0%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.
NOW: $1.80B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $1.78B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Revenue rose $387.99M to $435.36M (+12.2%) between the period ended 2026-03-31 and the period ended 2026-06-30 (10-Q).
NOW: $435.36M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
WAS: $387.99M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)
Operating cash flow was positive ($256.38M) over the period ended 2026-06-30; no cash deficit to burn.
NOW: $256.38M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)
When something material happens, the company itself must announce it in an 8-K under the SEC's numbered item system. These are those announcements, newest first: bankruptcy papers, exchange delisting warnings, auditor changes, financials pulled back. Read straight from the SEC filing index, no interpretation layer.
SOURCE: THE ITEM NUMBERS THE COMPANY ITSELF PUT ON EACH 8-K IN THE SEC'S FILING INDEX. HOVER A STAMP FOR WHAT THAT ITEM MEANS FOR YOUR SHARES. OFFICIAL NOTICES INSIDE THE LAST 12 MONTHS ALSO FEED THE RISK INDEX ABOVE (CAPPED AT 15 POINTS).
EACH BAR IS ONE REPORTED QUARTER. GREEN = MOST RECENT QUARTER GREW VS THE ONE BEFORE.
An 8-K is the "something happened right now" filing. Here is what this one says, in the company's own words.
On August 26, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (“Victory” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Genstar Capital whereby the Company will acquire First Eagle Investments (“First Eagle”) in exchange for cash and stock consideration as further described in the press release. The closing of the contemplated transactions is subject to customary closing conditions. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as
A rules-based reading of the cited filing facts: a range with reasons, never a prediction.
HOW THE BRACKET IS BUILT: TRAILING EARNINGS OF $6.61/SHARE AT 10.0-18.0X · BOOK EQUITY OF $38.61/SHARE AS A SUPPORT LEVEL · CASH FLOOR: $1.14/SHARE IN A WIND-DOWN.
Share count is stable-ish (-1.6% change between the last two reported quarters).
Revenue was roughly flat (+12.2% period over period).
Fair-value range anchored to cited facts: $66.14 to $119.05 per share.
The filings do not report usable cash and operating-burn figures, so runway could not be computed for this verdict.
METHOD: DETERMINISTIC RULES OVER CITED SEC FILING FACTS: SHARE-COUNT CHANGE BETWEEN THE LAST TWO REPORTED QUARTERS (DILUTION), CASH-TO-BURN RUNWAY FROM THE MOST RECENT OPERATING CASH FLOW, PERIOD-OVER-PERIOD REVENUE GROWTH, AND A FAIR-VALUE RANGE ANCHORED TO CASH PER SHARE VS PRICE. THRESHOLDS ARE TUNABLE IN APP/VERDICT_ENGINE.PY. NOT A PREDICTION.
Every time an officer, director or big owner trades shares, the law makes them file a Form 4 within two business days. We read the actual filings: who traded, what kind of trade, how big, at what price.
NO OPEN-MARKET BUYS OR SELLS: JUST COMPENSATION PAPER. WATCH WHETHER THE GRANTS TURN INTO SALES ONCE THEY VEST. "10B5-1 PLAN" MEANS THE TRADE WAS SCHEDULED UNDER A PRE-SET TRADING PLAN, DISCLOSED IN THE FILING'S OWN FOOTNOTES: PRE-PLANNED SALES CARRY LESS SIGNAL THAN SPUR-OF-THE-MOMENT ONES. SOURCE: FORM 4 FILINGS, PARSED FROM THE SEC'S OWN XML, LAST 10 FILINGS.
The company's most recent SEC paperwork, newest first.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
Public records that most investors never check, cross-checked against what the company claims. This is where shells slip up.
SOURCES: PUBLIC DOMAIN REGISTRATION RECORDS (FOUND IN THE COMPANY'S OWN FILING SIGNATURES) · THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX · OFFICIAL US SANCTIONS LIST · QUARTERLY 13F FILINGS VIA EDGAR FULL-TEXT SEARCH · LEGAL-IDENTITY, SITE-HISTORY, CERTIFICATE, REGISTRANT-HISTORY AND DNS SLOTS STREAM IN FROM FREE PUBLIC REGISTRIES WITHOUT BLOCKING THIS PAGE.
Real visitors who opened this case file also checked these tickers. Derived only from on-site search and watchlist activity of the last 90 days: no tracking, no cookies.
SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX
One Telegram message per material filing: dilution, going concern, delisting, insider dumps. No account, no email. Every line cites its SEC source. Leave anytime with /unwatch.
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