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VEL

Velocity Financial, Inc.
LAST CLOSE… Finance Services SHARES +2.7% · 12M
42
GUARDED
RISK INDEX
RED FLAGS 38 YEARS-LONG PATTERN 4 = 42/100. WHY THIS NUMBER, PIECE BY PIECE.

THE READ 12 red-flag mentions across this year's filings, led by dilution, and 70 since 2001, so this is a long-running pattern; share count roughly stable.

FLAGS DILUTION CASH WHAT CHANGED VERDICT INSIDERS OUTSIDE RECORDS
01

Red Flags

2025-08-27 → 2026-08-27

We read every document this company filed with the SEC this year and counted the classic danger phrases. Where wording can be misleading, we open the actual documents and separate real warnings from accounting boilerplate. Each hit links to the exact document.

Dilution (at the market offering) 11 REAL WARNINGS · 5 matching docS this year · 40 ALL TIME

An ATM lets the company print and sell new shares into the market any day it wants. Every print dilutes your slice.

EVIDENCE: [1] 10-Q FILED 2026-05-07 · [2] 10-Q FILED 2025-11-07 · [3] 10-Q FILED 2026-08-06 · [4] 8-K FILED 2026-01-29 · [5] 10-K FILED 2026-03-12

Reverse stock split 0 THIS YEAR · 7 ALL TIME

A reverse split shrinks the share count to lift the price above $1. Repeat reverse splits are the classic death-spiral signature.

Going concern doubt 0 REAL WARNINGS · 1 matching doc this year · 7 ALL TIME

Auditors flagged substantial doubt the company survives the next 12 months without new money.

EVIDENCE: [1] 8-K FILED 2026-08-27

Delisting / exchange risk 1 REAL WARNING · 1 matching doc this year · 16 ALL TIME

The exchange has threatened to kick the stock off. Delisting pressure usually ends in a reverse split or a fire-sale raise.

EVIDENCE: [1] 10-K FILED 2026-03-12

SOURCE: FULL-TEXT SEARCH OF THE COMPANY'S OFFICIAL SEC FILINGS. "REAL WARNINGS" = WE OPENED THE LINKED DOCUMENTS AND FILTERED PHRASES WRAPPED IN NEGATIONS, RESOLUTION LANGUAGE OR STANDARD CONTRACT TERMS. "AT LEAST" = MORE DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PHRASE THIS YEAR THAN WE COULD OPEN AND READ.

02

The Printing Press

How many shares exist, over time, exactly as the company reported in its own filings. In microcaps, a rising share count is how holders pay for everything: salaries, debts, and bad deals. Sudden collapses in the line are reverse splits, marked below.

20,087,494 shares · 2020-04-30 39,481,457 shares · 2026-07-31 LAST 12M: +2.7% AVG/YEAR SINCE 2020: +11.4%

SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED SHARE COUNTS ACROSS 26 FILINGS, STRAIGHT FROM SEC RECORDS

CHECKING OFFICIAL SPLIT RECORDS…

What this means for YOUR shares

Type how many shares you hold. The math is plain division on the company's own reported counts.

03

Cash Countdown

Cash in the bank against how fast the company burns it. When this hits zero, the next stop is usually a desperate raise at bad terms, and existing holders pay through dilution.

$76.11M
CASH ON HAND
latest reported quarter
-12.6%
CASH CHANGE QoQ
latest two reported quarters
2024·92024·122025·32025·62025·92025·122026·32026·6
CASH OVER TIME, LAST 8 REPORTED QUARTERS $44.09M → $76.11M TREND: +72.6%

RUNWAY = CASH ON HAND ÷ MONTHLY CASH BURN. SIMPLE ARITHMETIC ON THE COMPANY'S OWN REPORTED NUMBERS, NOT A PROJECTION.

04

What the Newest Filing Changed

The latest filings, translated into holder impact. Every number cites its form, date and SEC link.

Shares outstanding +0.6%

Shares outstanding rose 39.26M to 39.48M (+0.6%) between 10-Q 2026-04-30 and 10-Q 2026-07-31.

NOW: 39,481,457 as of 2026-07-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

WAS: 39,255,281 as of 2026-04-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)

Cash and equivalents -12.6%

Cash and equivalents fell $87.05M to $76.11M (-$10.94M, -12.6%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.

NOW: $76.11M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

WAS: $87.05M as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)

Total assets +4.9%

Total assets rose to $7.96B (from $7.59B, +4.9%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.

NOW: $7.96B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

WAS: $7.59B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)

Total liabilities +5.0%

Total liabilities rose to $7.24B (from $6.90B, +5.0%) between 10-Q 2026-03-31 and 10-Q 2026-06-30.

NOW: $7.24B as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

WAS: $6.90B as of 2026-03-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-05-07)

Revenue

Revenue: nothing to compare. This company's filings do not publish us-gaap:Revenues, so no honest change can be computed.

Cash burn / runway

Operating cash flow was positive ($15.83M) over the period ended 2026-06-30; no cash deficit to burn.

NOW: $15.83M as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

!

Critical 8-K Ledger

OFFICIAL NOTICES · 24 MO

When something material happens, the company itself must announce it in an 8-K under the SEC's numbered item system. These are those announcements, newest first: bankruptcy papers, exchange delisting warnings, auditor changes, financials pulled back. Read straight from the SEC filing index, no interpretation layer.

2026-01-20 ITEM 5.02 · OFFICER / DIRECTOR EXIT FILING ↗
2025-01-22 ITEM 5.02 · OFFICER / DIRECTOR EXIT FILING ↗

SOURCE: THE ITEM NUMBERS THE COMPANY ITSELF PUT ON EACH 8-K IN THE SEC'S FILING INDEX. HOVER A STAMP FOR WHAT THAT ITEM MEANS FOR YOUR SHARES. OFFICIAL NOTICES INSIDE THE LAST 12 MONTHS ALSO FEED THE RISK INDEX ABOVE (CAPPED AT 15 POINTS).

!

Breaking Filing

8-K · 2026-08-27

An 8-K is the "something happened right now" filing. Here is what this one says, in the company's own words.

Item 1.01

Equity Purchase Agreement On August 26, 2026, Velocity Commercial Capital, LLC (the “Company”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Velocity Financial, Inc. (“Velocity”), entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Toorak Capital LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Seller”), pursuant to which the Company will purchase from Seller all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of a Delaware limited liability company to be formed through a statutory division of Toorak Capital Partners LLC, MMTC Holdings LLC and MMTC Portfolio Holdings, LLC (collectively, the “P...

Item 7.01

On August 27, 2026, Velocity issued a press release announcing the Transactions. Additionally, in the press release, Velocity announced a conference call for the same date at 5:30 a.m. Pacific Time / 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the Transactions. The conference call webcast will be available through the Events and Presentations section of the Velocity Financial Investor Relations website: https://www.velfinance.com/events-and-presentations. Alternatively, participants may access the conference call by dialing 1-646-307-1963 in the U.S. and for international callers using conference ID #55...

READ THE ORIGINAL FILING

05

The Verdict

HOLD · MED CONFIDENCE

A rules-based reading of the cited filing facts: a range with reasons, never a prediction.

HOLD
SCREENING VERDICT
MED confidence
$18.11-$49.10
FAIR VALUE BRACKET
trailing earnings of $2.73/share at 10.0-18.0x
$18.11
LAST CLOSE
non-realtime

HOW THE BRACKET IS BUILT: TRAILING EARNINGS OF $2.73/SHARE AT 10.0-18.0X · BOOK EQUITY OF $18.37/SHARE AS A SUPPORT LEVEL · CASH FLOOR: $1.93/SHARE IN A WIND-DOWN.

BASIS FOR

+1

Share count is stable-ish (+0.6% change between the last two reported quarters).

+2

Fair-value range anchored to cited facts: $18.11 to $49.10 per share.

AGAINST

−1

The filings do not report usable cash and operating-burn figures, so runway could not be computed for this verdict.

−2

The filings do not publish comparable revenue figures for two consecutive periods, so the revenue trend could not be measured.

METHOD: DETERMINISTIC RULES OVER CITED SEC FILING FACTS: SHARE-COUNT CHANGE BETWEEN THE LAST TWO REPORTED QUARTERS (DILUTION), CASH-TO-BURN RUNWAY FROM THE MOST RECENT OPERATING CASH FLOW, PERIOD-OVER-PERIOD REVENUE GROWTH, AND A FAIR-VALUE RANGE ANCHORED TO CASH PER SHARE VS PRICE. THRESHOLDS ARE TUNABLE IN APP/VERDICT_ENGINE.PY. NOT A PREDICTION.

06

Insider Paper Trail

NET SELLING

Every time an officer, director or big owner trades shares, the law makes them file a Form 4 within two business days. We read the actual filings: who traded, what kind of trade, how big, at what price.

0
OPEN-MARKET BUYS
nobody is buying with their own cash
9
OPEN-MARKET SELLS
13,795 shares · ~$258K cashed out
0
GRANTS / AWARDS
none on record
2/9
SELLS ON 10B5-1 PLANS
some sales were discretionary, decided at the moment they happened
2026-032026-042026-052026-062026-072026-08
ABOVE THE LINE: CASH BUYS BELOW THE LINE: CASH SELLS 6 MO: +$0 / -$258K

EACH MONTH SHOWS OPEN-MARKET DOLLAR FLOW PARSED FROM FORM 4 FILINGS. GRANTS AND OPTION PAPER ARE EXCLUDED: THIS IS REAL MONEY IN AND OUT.

DATEWHOACTION
2026-08-11 Taylor Jeffrey T. OPEN-MARKET SELL 4,330 @ $19.06
2026-08-11 Tam Fiona OPEN-MARKET SELL 1,232 @ $19.00
2026-08-10 Szczepaniak Mark R OPEN-MARKET SELL 2,000 @ $18.16
2026-08-06 Kelly Roland Thomas OPEN-MARKET SELL 1,600 @ $18.00
2026-08-06 Szczepaniak Mark R OPEN-MARKET SELL 400 @ $18.00
2026-07-28 Szczepaniak Mark R OPEN-MARKET SELL 400 @ $18.00
2026-07-07 Tam Fiona OPEN-MARKET SELL 68 @ $19.00 10B5-1 PLAN
2026-07-07 Taylor Jeffrey T. OPEN-MARKET SELL 2,165 @ $19.00 10B5-1 PLAN
2026-07-01 Kelly Roland Thomas OPEN-MARKET SELL 1,600 @ $18.57
2026-06-30 Kelly Roland Thomas OTHER 858 @ $18.46

PEOPLE WITH THE BEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS COMPANY ARE SELLING MORE THAN THEY BUY. NOT PROOF OF ANYTHING: EXECUTIVES SELL FOR MANY REASONS. BUT AT MICROCAP SCALE, IT RARELY SMELLS GOOD. "10B5-1 PLAN" MEANS THE TRADE WAS SCHEDULED UNDER A PRE-SET TRADING PLAN, DISCLOSED IN THE FILING'S OWN FOOTNOTES: PRE-PLANNED SALES CARRY LESS SIGNAL THAN SPUR-OF-THE-MOMENT ONES. SOURCE: FORM 4 FILINGS, PARSED FROM THE SEC'S OWN XML, LAST 10 FILINGS.

07

Filing Timeline

The company's most recent SEC paperwork, newest first.

8-K 2026-08-27 0001193125-26-369585
4 2026-08-11 0001214659-26-009936
4 2026-08-11 0001214659-26-009935
144 2026-08-11 0001950047-26-007954
144 2026-08-11 0001950047-26-007953
144 2026-08-10 0001950047-26-007896

SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX

08

Outside the Filings

Public records that most investors never check, cross-checked against what the company claims. This is where shells slip up.

dfinsolutions.com
WEB ADDRESS ON RECORD
registered 2018-05-03 · via MarkMonitor Inc.
8.3 YRS OLD
DOMAIN AGE
old and consistent with an operating company: a good sign
0
OFFICIAL OFFERING DOCS · 12M
no completed stock sales to the public in a year
0
SHELF REGISTRATIONS · 12M
none filed: no dilution pipeline on record
0
BIG-OWNER TAKEOVER FILINGS · 12M
no outside investor has crossed the 5% disclosure line this year
PUBLIC FLOAT
shares actually tradable, vs held by insiders and big owners
SOLD SHORT
FINRA short interest: how many shares are bets against this company, and how many days of trading it would take to cover
CLEAR
US SANCTIONS SCREEN
company name checked against the official US sanctions list (19290 entries)
LEGAL IDENTITY (LEI)
every company that trades securities must carry a global legal identifier: status, parent chain and subsidiaries from the official registry
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS · 13F
quarterly institutional holdings filings scanned for this exact company name: which funds still report holding shares, from their own filings
SITE HISTORY
how long the company's website has been around, per the public web archive
CERT RECORD
public certificate logs date the company's web infrastructure: old and boring is good, brand-new is a tell
REGISTRANT HISTORY
old snapshots of public WHOIS pages: has the registered owner of this address changed hands
HOSTING + MAIL RECORDS
public DNS records: where the address is pointed and whether it can even receive mail

SOURCES: PUBLIC DOMAIN REGISTRATION RECORDS (FOUND IN THE COMPANY'S OWN FILING SIGNATURES) · THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX · OFFICIAL US SANCTIONS LIST · QUARTERLY 13F FILINGS VIA EDGAR FULL-TEXT SEARCH · LEGAL-IDENTITY, SITE-HISTORY, CERTIFICATE, REGISTRANT-HISTORY AND DNS SLOTS STREAM IN FROM FREE PUBLIC REGISTRIES WITHOUT BLOCKING THIS PAGE.

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09

Company Record

Legal nameVelocity Financial, Inc.
Fiscal year end1231
HQ2945 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA
Last periodic report2026-08-06 (10-Q, 21d ago)
Shares outstanding39,481,457 as of 2026-07-31 (10-Q)

SOURCE: THE COMPANY'S SEC FILING INDEX

Next time VEL files something scary, know within minutes.

One Telegram message per material filing: dilution, going concern, delisting, insider dumps. No account, no email. Every line cites its SEC source. Leave anytime with /unwatch.

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